Summary
- There are at least 6 reasons for a bullish Q4 2024 for Bitcoin and crypto.
- Today, BTC price holds above $63,000, following last week’s rally.
As September is almost over, the crypto industry has various reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin and the overall industry.
Besides the fact that Binance’s Changpeng Zhao will be released from prison this week, here are more hints at an optimistic Q4.
Top 6 Reasons For a Bullish Q4 2024
1. Q4 Has The Highest Historical Returns
According to historical data, Q4 tends to have the highest returns of any quarter.
Bitcoin is currently on track for the strongest September performance in its history, and if the digital asset closes this month in the green, the higher the odds for a high October, November, and December will be.
CoinGlass data shows that in 2015, 2016, and 2023 when BTC closed September in the green, the last months of the years also had significant returns.
2. Q4 Halving Years Tend to Outperform Non-Halving Years
According to the same data from CoinGlass, Q4 in halving years outperformed the last quarters of the non-halving years.
2016 and 2020, both halving years for Bitcoin, saw a strong trajectory for the coin, apart from some non-halving years which also showed impressive Q4 results, including 2015, 2017, and 2023.
3. Q4 2024 Will Likely Be Boosted By 1st Rate Cuts Since 2020
Back on September 18, the US Fed decided to cut interest rates by 50 bps. They haven’t cut rates since 2020 when the covid pandemic debuted, and BTC kicked off a significant price rally, addressed by Lookonchain not too long ago.
If the Fed’s rate cuts are a hint, then 2024 will probably follow the same path in terms of a rallying price for BTC.
4. Over $16B to Be Returned to FTX Customers in Cash
FTX creditor recovery starts in October 2024. The total recovery amount is $16.25 billion, and the distribution mechanism is stablecoins or cash. The submission deadline for customers was August 16, 2024.
The Distribution Mechanism is important as, usually, when creditors are repaid by failed crypto companies, they get paid in crypto.
This can lead to a lot of people converting their recovered funds into cash and dragging prices down. But the fact that FTX is distributing the funds in cash/stablecoins will not affect crypto prices. Some creditors might even pour the money back into the crypto market.
This means that the worst-case scenario is that the FTX repayment will have a neutral effect on crypto, while the best-case is that it will pump up prices.
5. MicroStrategy To Buy More BTC
MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor recently announced the completion of a $1.01 billion upsized offering of Convertible Notes at 0.625% coupon and 40% conversion premium.
The proceeds from the sales are set for buying more BTC and other corporate uses.
6. Q4 Is When the Big Money Flows into the Market
Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s CIO, shared a post via X on September 20, saying that he was about to “orange-pill” a room of financial advisors that manage more than $1 trillion at the Barron’s Top 100 Conference.
The orange-pill term is a reference to Bitcoin, and Barron’s Top 100 Conference is an annual elite gathering of top financial advisors. If Hougan successfully promoted Bitcoin during the conference, big money should continue to flow in the market in the upcoming months.
These are just a few of the reasons why we are on our way to seeing a bullish Q4 for Bitcoin and the entire crypto industry.
Bitcoin‘s price is currently holding above $63,000 following a rally last week that kicked off ahead of the FOMC meeting and continued afterward as well.