Key Points
- Bitcoin’s [BTC] price could potentially fall below $75k due to renewed U.S. recession fears.
- Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood predicts better macro conditions in the second half of 2025.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] value might experience a dip below $75k in the near future due to heightened fears of a U.S. recession.
This prediction comes from Greg Madagini, Director at Amberdata, a crypto options analytics platform, who suggests that BTC could potentially fall to $72K in the short term.
Potential Dip to $72K
In his weekly market report, Magadini stated, “BTC prices look to be delivering a Bart Simpson pattern, which would target spot prices back to $72k, the Nov 5th election level.”
The Bart Simpson pattern is characterized by a sharp rise, followed by consolidation, and then a sharp retrace.
If this pattern holds true, BTC might reach its last November U.S. election level, similar to the retracement observed in U.S. equities, as per Magadini.
Technical analyst Peter Brandt shares a similar bearish outlook, suggesting that BTC has structurally topped out and needs to reclaim $95K to shift the market sentiment to positive again.
Deflationary Boom Predicted
Despite the U.S. recession fears, Cathie Wood from Ark Invest anticipates that the U.S. economy will witness a ‘deflationary boom’ in the second half of 2025.
She said, “In our view, the market is discounting the last leg of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump Administration and the Powell Fed many more degrees of freedom than investors expect, setting up the U.S. economy for a deflationary boom in the second half of this year!”
There is also a strong correlation between BTC and the global money supply (M2). Analysts have noted that BTC lags behind global M2, and the recent drawdown mirrored M2’s drop last quarter.
If this correlation persists, BTC could potentially bounce back as the indicator surged in Q1 2025.
Jon Consorti, head of growth at Theya Bitcoin, noted that with the BTC fear and greed index at typical ‘bottom’ levels, the cryptocurrency could be primed for a recovery.
At press time, BTC was valued at $81.6K after a brief dip to $76K. This level was also a 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on a weekly chart and crucial support for past bull markets. The future remains uncertain.