Bitcoin is currently undergoing a recovery bounce after finding support near the $74,281 level (0.0% Fibonacci retracement), but the broader technical picture suggests bearish momentum remains dominant in the near term.
The 4-hour chart clearly shows that Bitcoin recently completed a double top formation with the neckline around $93,500, confirming a trend reversal from the previous uptrend. After breaking below this critical support level, price experienced a sharp decline, eventually finding buyers at approximately $74,281.
Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch
The current recovery is testing key Fibonacci retracement levels that will likely determine Bitcoin’s next directional move:
- The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $79,813 has been recently tested, with price currently sitting around $80,253
- The 50.0% retracement at $81,522 represents the next significant resistance
- The 61.8% level at $83,232 aligns with previous support-turned-resistance
These Fibonacci levels are crucial to monitor as they often act as magnets for price action during corrective phases. A rejection at any of these levels could signal resumption of the bearish trend, while a sustained break above the 61.8% retracement would question the bearish thesis.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis
The chart shows the 100 SMA positioned above the 200 SMA, which typically indicates bullish momentum. However, the narrowing gap between these moving averages suggests an imminent bearish crossover, which would further confirm the negative outlook. Both moving averages are likely to act as dynamic resistance levels during the current bounce.
The stochastic oscillator is trending upward, approaching overbought territory, indicating that buying momentum still has some strength but is beginning to fade. Once the stochastic reaches the overbought zone and turns lower, it would signal a potential resumption of the downtrend.
The MACD indicator appears to be attempting to form a bottom, showing a potential reversal from bearish to bullish momentum in the short term. However, it remains below the zero line, suggesting that the broader trend remains bearish.
The broader structure shows Bitcoin trading within a falling wedge pattern which can sometimes lead to bullish reversals, but only if price breaks decisively above the upper boundary, which currently aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
The overall price action pattern displays lower highs and lower lows, which is characteristic of a bearish trend. For this pattern to be invalidated, Bitcoin would need to climb above the most recent significant high around $88,764 (the 100% Fibonacci level).
Bitcoin Price Outlook
From a bearish standpoint, Bitcoin continues to face rejection at Fibonacci resistance levels, particularly at the 50% or 61.8% retracement, before resuming its downward trajectory to retest the recent lows at $74,281. A break below this level could accelerate selling pressure toward deeper support zones.
On the other hand, a bullish scenario could see bitcoin breaking convincingly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the falling wedge pattern, signaling a potential end to the corrective phase and resumption of the longer-term uptrend toward the December 2024 highs around $109,800.
Traders should watch for candlestick reversal patterns at key Fibonacci levels, which could provide early signals of the next directional move. Headlines related to tariffs and trade tensions from countermeasures could also serve as a catalyst for big swings since these have been impactful on overall market sentiment.
