Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has experienced significant volatility in recent months, forming a notable double top pattern at its record highs before entering a corrective phase.
The current price action suggests a potential consolidation or slight rebound after retracing approximately 38.20% from its recent peak, although technical indicators like MACD have shown a bearish cross to open the month of April.
Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch
The weekly chart shows Bitcoin trading around $83,496, having pulled back from its December 2024 highs. This retracement has found support near the 38.20% Fibonacci level at $73,571, suggesting buyers have stepped in at this key technical junction.
The cryptocurrency remains well above both the 50% retracement level at $62,530 and the 61.80% level at $51,489, indicating the overall bullish structure remains intact despite recent selling pressure.
The long-term ascending trendline connecting the lows since mid-2023 continues to provide structural support for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. This trendline has been respected throughout the 2023-2025 bull cycle and currently intersects with important horizontal support zones, creating a confluence of technical factors that could limit further downside.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis
The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains above the 200-day SMA, confirming that the long-term bullish trend is still in effect.
However, the narrowing gap between these two indicators suggests diminishing momentum, potentially signaling an imminent bearish crossover if selling pressure intensifies. The price has recently tested the 100 SMA as resistance during its corrective bounce, highlighting its significance as a dynamic inflection point.
The current price action shows Bitcoin trading above both major moving averages, which typically serves as a bullish indicator. However, sustained trading below the 100 SMA could trigger further selling toward the 200 SMA, which often acts as the last line of defense in bull markets.
The stochastic oscillator has recently turned lower from overbought territory, suggesting waning bullish momentum. This indicator’s descent indicates that sellers are regaining control in the short term, potentially leading to continued sideways or downward price action. Traders should monitor for potential bullish divergences that might signal reversal opportunities.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) shows bearish momentum with the MACD line crossing below the signal line and the histogram displaying negative values.
This bearish MACD crossover aligns with the overall corrective phase Bitcoin is experiencing, following a downward cross at the start of April. However, the MACD remains above the zero line on larger timeframes, suggesting the broader bullish momentum hasn’t been completely extinguished.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
If Bitcoin continues its corrective bounce, key resistance levels to watch include the 100 SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A decisive break above these levels could target the previously broken double top neckline around $93,500, which now serves as significant resistance. Reversal candlesticks at these Fibonacci retracement levels would suggest a resumption of the downtrend.
Conversely, if support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level fails to hold, Bitcoin could extend its decline toward the 50% retracement level at $62,530. The 200 SMA and the long-term ascending trendline provide additional support layers that bulls would likely defend vigorously.
From a broader perspective, Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend despite the recent correction. The market continues to respond to potential crypto-friendly developments under the Trump administration, including discussions about establishing a “strategic crypto reserve.” However, the lack of concrete details from recent regulatory developments has contributed to the unwinding of some bullish positions.
Traders should watch for bullish reversal patterns at the current support zone or bearish continuation signals at resistance levels to determine the next significant move in Bitcoin’s price action.
