Key Points
- According to a recent Polymarket poll, there is a 63% chance of Bitcoin reaching a new high this year.
- Bitcoin’s potential catalysts include the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, institutional investment in spot Bitcoin ETFs, and favorable seasonality.
A recent poll conducted by Polymarket suggests that Bitcoin has a high probability of reaching a new peak this year.
Polymarket Poll Predicts Bitcoin’s New High
In this poll, 63% of participants expressed confidence that Bitcoin will continue its upward trend and set a new record. The likelihood of this happening has increased from a low of 42% earlier this month.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $63,840. To retest its all-time high of $68,777, it needs to surge by 15.6%. Given its 21% rise from the lowest point in September, this is achievable.
Potential Catalysts for Bitcoin’s Uptrend
Several potential factors could propel Bitcoin to new heights. One such catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. Economic data released recently, including a manufacturing PMI below 45 and a slip in consumer confidence due to labor market concerns, supports these cuts. As a result, the Fed might continue reducing rates, which generally benefits Bitcoin and other risky assets.
Institutional investors’ increasing interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs could also boost Bitcoin’s value. Spot ETFs have seen inflows of over $392 million in the past four days, bringing the total to $17.8 billion. Furthermore, Bitcoin balances on exchanges have decreased to a new low, indicating that most holders have moved their coins to self-custody.
Seasonality is another potential catalyst. The average Bitcoin return in the fourth quarter is 88%, significantly better than the returns in the first three quarters.
Bitcoin’s Technical Indications
Bitcoin has also shown positive signs on the technical front. It has avoided forming a death cross, a bearish indicator where the 200-day and 50-day moving averages intersect. Currently, Bitcoin is trading above both these averages, suggesting that the bulls are in control.
Moreover, Bitcoin has formed two bullish patterns: an inverse head and shoulders and a falling broadening wedge. Historically, these patterns often lead to further upside.