Key Points
- Bitcoin’s historical data suggests it could surpass its previous all-time high by June 2025.
- Bitcoin bulls are currently defending the crucial 50-week moving average (MA50) at $75.8K.
Bitcoin’s trading patterns indicate that it is currently near the lower end of its historical seasonal range.
The cryptocurrency’s supporters are making efforts to keep the weekly MA50 at $75.8K, an indication that a period of consolidation may be underway.
Bitcoin’s Seasonality and Growth Patterns
A comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s performance since 2015 reveals that it had its most affordable price period during this time.
The “10 Years of Bitcoin Seasonality in One Chart” denotes this trend.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s shortest growth range, between 0.80 and 1.00, occurred in January and February, which aligns with the cryptocurrency’s current position.
The most significant annual price changes for Bitcoin were seen between April and October, as these months accounted for all changes in market value.
Starting from April, the growth pattern remained stable until October, when it continued its regular upward expansion from 1.40 to 1.60.
Predictions for Future Performance
Current data suggests that Bitcoin could surpass its previous all-time high by June 2025.
The projected growth could reach 2.00 or higher, with anticipated price levels between 2.20 and 2.60 from late 2024 to early 2025.
This projection is based on historical trends, where April’s seasonal uptick and October’s momentum often led to significant gains.
Beyond June, Bitcoin’s price may remain below 1.20 unless April sees its usual upward trend, the dollar’s weakness stabilizes, or investor interest increases.
Bitcoin bulls are currently protecting the essential 50 weekly Moving Average (MA50) by holding out at $75.8K.
The first support level has historically served as a rebound zone. For instance, Bitcoin rose from $67K in July 2024 to $83K in December, demonstrating sustained positive market movement.
Further analysis of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) trend signal suggests Bitcoin could maintain extended stability.
A decrease in SOPR from 1.07 to 1.00 during January 2025 indicates that buyers have halted profit-taking.
Historically, when SOPR reached approximately 1.00—such as in mid-2023—the market often experienced price increases.
This pattern suggests Bitcoin could potentially reach a new all-time high by June.
Additionally, analyst Avocado reported that Funding Rates on Binance held a negative position of -0.02 as of March 2025 as BTC traded around $83.6K.
In June 2024, a negative Funding Rate of -0.02 triggered a price increase, pushing Bitcoin from $50K to $70K.
A similar Funding Rate movement could potentially drive BTC’s price above $100K.
However, if a prolonged negative Funding Rate coincides with a failure of the MA50 support, BTC’s price could drop to $70K.
This scenario could also delay the achievement of a new all-time high.