Key Points
- Bitcoin’s Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) suggests a potential shift in market momentum.
- The Coinbase Premium Index shows signs of recovery, indicating a possible decrease in selling pressure.
Bitcoin’s market signals are hinting at a critical turning point. The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), which has been consistently below 1, suggests that many investors are selling at a loss. This is often associated with market capitulation.
Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index is showing signs of recovery. This could indicate a decrease in selling pressure, despite recent outflows and the usual weekend slowdowns.
Understanding aSOPR and Market Trends
aSOPR is a metric that determines whether Bitcoin investors are selling at a profit or a loss. A reading below 1 signifies that the average seller is selling at a loss. This typically aligns with capitulation phases and market bottoms.
Historically, when aSOPR stays below 1 for a long period and then recovers, it indicates a trend shift. Previous instances where aSOPR fell below 1 have coincided with local price bottoms, followed by a Bitcoin rebound.
The recent drop in early 2025 suggests a similar pattern. This raises the question of whether Bitcoin is approaching another turning point. If the selling pressure decreases and demand increases, history might repeat itself with another recovery.