Key Points
- Bitcoin’s impressive rise beyond $100K has led to speculation about its future trajectory.
- Technical indicators and on-chain data are being used to predict Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin’s rapid ascent beyond the $100K mark has left many pondering about its future. Is it a bubble ready to pop, or is it on the trajectory for $150,000–$200,000? The future of Bitcoin (BTC) seems less cloudy when we consider on-chain and technical indicators, as well as the macro perspective.
Bitcoin’s Current Status
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently registering 78, indicating Extreme Greed. This often signals potential short-term peaks. Simultaneously, the number of active Bitcoin addresses is on the rise, suggesting increased interest and usage. As of December 9, 2024, Bitcoin’s hash rate is approximately 850.70 EH/s, indicating a recovery from recent fluctuations and reflecting miner confidence.
Technical Indicators
The weekly Golden Cross, a significant signal for long-term investors, suggests the start of major bull markets. This signal reappeared in early 2024 and was followed by Bitcoin’s rise to its recent all-time high of $103,647. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin could potentially reach $150,000 to $250,000 before the next major cycle correction.
The Relative Strength Index on the weekly timeframe is at 74.47, indicating overbought conditions. This suggests the possibility of a short-term pullback or a period of sideways price action.
Fibonacci retracement levels and Bollinger Bands signal key support and potential cooling. Bitcoin’s price is currently trading slightly below the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong bullish momentum, but also potential overextension.
Future Developments
Developments in the crypto space could influence Bitcoin’s future. Post-halving supply shock, increasing retail and institutional participation, and institutional accumulation could push demand for Bitcoin to new highs. The proportion of institutional investors will likely grow, stabilizing price movements but also making Bitcoin more correlated with traditional markets.
Bitcoin wallet growth is expected to continue, particularly in emerging markets where Bitcoin is used as a hedge against local currency devaluation. Major corporations may start settling cross-border transactions in Bitcoin, and central banks in regions with high inflation or de-dollarization trends may increase interest in Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
Regulatory environments are also likely to impact Bitcoin’s trajectory. Countries like the U.S., the EU, and the UAE are likely to finalize crypto-friendly regulations, while other jurisdictions may clamp down on decentralized finance and self-custody to maintain control over financial systems.