Key Points
- The market’s expectation of Bitcoin hitting $100K has pushed it to 2020’s ‘extreme greed’ level.
- Markets were highly pricing the probability of Bitcoin soaring above $100K.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] expected target of $100K has led the market to reach a level of ‘extreme greed’ last seen in 2020, which was followed by a 50% price pullback.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that BTC’s Fear and Greed Index (FGI) reached a 4.5-year high of 94.
2020 Pattern Repeated?
Interestingly, this trend seems to replicate the pattern seen in 2020. In November 2020, the ‘extreme greed’ level also reached 94.
By February 2021, BTC had fallen by 20% and its decline extended to 50% by mid-2021. However, before this drawback, it had surged 250% in three months.
Market Expectations
After the 250% decline in the first half of 2021, BTC rallied 120% to reach a cycle top of $69K in the second half of 2021.
As of the time of writing, prediction markets were pricing BTC to soar above $100K. According to Kalshi, the odds of BTC hitting $100K or $150K by the end of the year were 81% and 10% respectively.
Asset manager VanEck predicted that the cryptocurrency could reach a cycle high of $180K, citing the pro-BTC regulatory environment and post-2020 election phase of +10% funding rates.
However, CryptoQuant’s founder Ki Young Ju projected a conservative cycle high of $141K and a 2024 target of $112K based on the realized cap valuation.
In summary, the market expects BTC to soar above $100K, as indicated by the elevated ‘extreme greed’ level. But any potential top signal could become apparent in early 2025.