Ethereum has been trading within a descending channel on its daily timeframe, showing persistent bearish momentum as price continues to make lower highs and lower lows.
After reaching highs around $2,200 in early March, ETH/USD has steadily declined, recently bouncing from support around the $1,416 level which coincides with the 0.00% Fibonacci retracement level.
ETH/USD has the upper and lower boundaries serving as dynamic resistance and support levels respectively. The recent price action shows a bounce from the lower boundary, but the rally appears to be losing steam at the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
Resistance at the nearby retracement zones and mid-channel area of interest could be crucial in confirming whether or not the ongoing trend is about to gain traction. A break above these regions, on the other hand, could be indicative of a reversal.
Key Ethereum Levels to Watch
The recent bounce from the $1,416 support level has encountered resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $1,625. Price action shows rejection from this level, suggesting sellers remain in control.
Key support levels to watch:
- $1,416 (recent low and 0.0% Fibonacci level)
- $1,400 (psychological support)
Key resistance levels:
- $1,625 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement)
- $1,690 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement)
- $1,754 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement)
- $1,800 (psychological resistance)
- $1,963 (100.0% Fibonacci level)
ETHUSD Technical Analysis
The price is currently trading below both the 100 and 200 SMAs, confirming the bearish bias in the market. The 100 SMA appears to be crossing below the 200 SMA, suggesting an imminent bearish crossover which could intensify selling pressure in the near term.
These moving averages are likely to act as dynamic resistance zones around the $1,800-1,900 area near the channel resistance and adding to the strength of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ceiling.
The Stochastic oscillator (14, 3, 3) shows that Ethereum is beginning to exit the oversold territory, indicating some potential for short-term upside. However, the oscillator appears to be flattening around the midpoint, suggesting limited bullish momentum.
The MACD (12, 26, close) histogram shows diminishing negative momentum as the bars are becoming shorter. The MACD line appears to be attempting to cross above the signal line, which could indicate a potential short-term bullish momentum shift if completed. However, both lines remain below the zero line, suggesting the overall trend remains bearish.
Ethereum Price Outlook
The short-term outlook for ETHUSD remains bearish as long as price stays below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,625. A sustained break above this level could see Ethereum test the 50.0% retracement at $1,690, followed by the 61.8% level at $1,754.
However, if sellers regain control and push the price below the $1,416 support, we could see Ethereum extend its decline toward the next significant support levels potentially around $1,300-$1,350.
Ethereum traders should watch for reversal candlestick patterns at key Fibonacci levels for potential entry or exit points. A series of strong bullish candlesticks closing above the 50.0% Fibonacci level would suggest that buyers are regaining control, while continued rejection from current levels could confirm the resumption of the bearish trend.
From a fundamental perspective, Ethereum’s price action may continue to be influenced by broader market sentiment toward cryptocurrencies, particularly as the market digests potential crypto regulatory developments under the current administration and reacts to sentiment swings resulting from global trade uncertainty.
