Key Points
- Bitcoin network fundamentals turned positive in October, indicating a possible bullish trend.
- Despite positive indicators, analysts have mixed BTC price projections due to the upcoming US elections.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] network fundamentals showed a positive trend for the first time in October. According to CryptoQuant, these positive network metrics have been consistent during bullish periods, suggesting a likely positive outcome for the asset, despite potential corrections or consolidations.
After a recent surge towards $70K, the 30-day average number of active BTC addresses approached the 1 million mark. This level, last seen in June, indicates a significant interest in the asset during last week’s pump.
Trends in Mining and Network Fees
Similar positive trends were recorded in the mining segment and network fees. Notably, the mining difficulty reached a record high, indicating a fierce competition for rewards among BTC miners. This competition is a positive catalyst for BTC’s intrinsic value.
Furthermore, BTC’s apparent demand, or the difference between production and inventory schedule, rose to a 6-month high of 256K BTC. This increase in demand often precedes a BTC price hike.
Analysts’ Mixed Projections
Despite these positive catalysts, analysts have mixed BTC price projections as the US elections approach. Blockworks’ analyst Felix Jauvin warned that BTC could be range-bound until the election concludes.
Similarly, Justin Bennett expressed caution, citing whales’ lack of interest in buying the recent mid-week dip. Since 17th October, the Whale vs. Retail Delta, which tracks whales’ positioning relative to retail traders, has declined, suggesting that whales have reduced their exposure to BTC.
However, options traders have remained bullish. This is evident from their increased purchase of call options (bets that the BTC price will rise) by election day. In a daily update on 22 October, trading firm QCP Capital noted that short-term implied volatility is peaking at election day expiry, favoring calls over puts, despite BTC being about 8% below its all-time highs.