Key Points
- Bitcoin’s current market structure mirrors its 2017 cycle, suggesting a potential bull run.
- Despite volatility and external risks, the historical cycle patterns of Bitcoin remain intact.
Bitcoin’s [BTC](https://www.btcnews.com/price/bitcoin/) price action currently reflects its performance in March 2017.
This was a time when Bitcoin was nine months away from reaching its peak.
Bitcoin’s RSI and Historical Patterns
The similarities between the current market and the 2017 cycle are highlighted by Bitcoin’s return to critically low RSI Bollinger Band % levels, as pointed out in a recent X post.
When Bitcoin’s RSI Bollinger Band % hits such low levels, it often indicates that the asset is deeply oversold within its volatility range, signaling a potential rebound.
This pattern has been observed in 2013, 2016, and 2020, just before Bitcoin hit new all-time highs.
Interestingly, the current RSI Bollinger Bands are mirroring the 2017 cycle, when Bitcoin surged 1,500% to $19,086 by Q4 after bottoming below $1,000.
Market Uncertainty and Potential Bull Run
However, Bitcoin’s price action currently remains uncertain at $83,078.
Analysts have warned that a local bottom has not yet formed, with institutional outflows accelerating and long-term holder supply dropping to pre-election lows – indicators of short-term weakness.
Despite this volatility, Bitcoin’s historical cycle patterns are still intact.
If history repeats itself, could HODLing prove to be the best long-term strategy?
While a definitive bottom hasn’t formed, there are no strong signals of a market top either.
FOMO is steadily rising, with exchange reserves plunging to a one-year low, reflecting persistent long-term accumulation rather than profit-taking.
Despite Bitcoin’s 22% pullback from its $109K peak, BTC supply on exchanges continues to shrink – a sign that investors are holding, not selling.
For Bitcoin to replicate its 2017 bull cycle, this accumulation trend must persist.
If sustained, historical data suggests the market’s true cycle top could still be nine months away.
Even amid macro uncertainty and stock market liquidations, BTC has maintained its $77K–$80K range, reflecting unwavering investor confidence.
In the near term, breaking past $90K remains the key challenge.
But in the long run, sustained accumulation and growing confidence could push Bitcoin into six-digit territory.