Key Points
- Bitcoin’s market dynamics have experienced significant shifts, suggesting potential long-term changes.
- CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator predicts a transition from a bull to a bear market by late 2024.
Bitcoin’s market dynamics have undergone a considerable transformation, indicating possible changes in its long-term path.
Long-term holder activity, market cycle shifts, and capitulation events have been revealed through analyses, providing valuable insights for crypto traders navigating Bitcoin’s evolving landscape.
Reshaping Market Momentum
Maartuunn’s 60-day CDD indicator showed notable surges in long-term holder activity from January to July 2024 and November 2024 to the 26th of February. This activity often precedes market tops or increased volatility.
The consistent elevation over the past year suggested that long-term holders took profits or reallocated assets, potentially indicating selling pressure. This pattern is similar to the peak in 2021, where elevated CDD levels marked a turning point.
BTC Market Cycles: A Changing Landscape
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator forecasts a transition from a bull to a bear market by late 2024. The indicator dipped into negative territory, reaching -0.0685 on the 24th of October 2024, while the 365-day moving average trended downward at 0.25.
This divergence signalled a weakening momentum, potentially ending the bull cycle. Historically, negative readings have preceded bear markets, characterized by declining prices and increased selling.
The BTC Price vs. Hash Price chart revealed a crucial relationship influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Blue boxes highlighted periods where Hash Price dropped to low levels, aligning with Bitcoin price bottoms.
Despite recent price volatility, the bull run appeared to be ongoing; thus, as Hash Price declines, price recoveries have historically preceded. This pattern suggested miners faced reduced profitability, but Bitcoin’s price resilience indicated sustained demand.
Capitulation in BTC Profit
BTC’s realized Profit and Loss chart captured a massive capitulation event on February 25, 2025, marking the largest since August 2024.
Novice investors distributed over 79,000 BTC at a loss, totaling $1.7 billion in realized losses. This spike echoed the August 2024 capitulation after Japan’s interest rate hike, which marked a market bottom and preceded a recovery to $100,000 by December 2024.
The chart’s sharp decline in realized profits suggested panic selling, but historical patterns indicated this could signal a price floor. Deep analysis can help recognize this rare opportunity, as such events often precede medium-term price stabilization and growth.