Key Points
- Pro-Bitcoin candidate Donald Trump is leading in prediction sites for the upcoming US presidential elections.
- BTC options traders are bullish due to the election outcome expectations, with BTC nearing $70K.
According to prediction sites and top models, Donald Trump, a pro-Bitcoin (BTC) candidate, is likely to win the impending US presidential elections.
Analyst Jim Bianco of Bianco Research reviewed these sites, such as Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and others, which are projecting a +60% chance of a Trump victory.
Potential impact on BTC
Despite criticism faced by platforms like Polymarket for alleged manipulation, other reliable models are leaning towards Trump.
Top election models like Silver Bulletin and two other popular ones are showing a high probability of +50% for a Trump win.
BTC markets are viewing these expectations as bullish. In recent weeks, BTC surged as Trump’s odds crossed 60% on Polymarket, pushing BTC to nearly $70K.
Market positioning
The bullish expectation of Trump’s win had a significant impact on the BTC options market.
Last week, options traders priced a 20% chance of BTC hitting $80K by the end of November. According to Deribit data, there was nearly twice as much Open Interest in call options than in put options for contracts expiring by 8th November.
The put/call ratio (PCR), which tracks options market sentiment, was at 0.55. A value below 1 signifies dominance of call options, indicating a bullish sentiment.
This 0.55 PCR reading indicates an extremely bullish sentiment in the options market, possibly due to the assumption that Trump is likely to win.
However, with Kamala Harris’s increasingly pro-crypto stance, BTC options traders believe that the asset could hit a new all-time high (ATH) regardless of the election outcome.
Currently, BTC is valued at $67K, about 9% away from its ATH of $73.7K.