Key Points
- Bitcoin options traders foresee a potential hike to $80K by November, amidst US election uncertainty.
- Despite market volatility, the BTC options market maintains a bullish outlook.
Bitcoin [BTC] options traders are optimistic, predicting a rise to $80K by November, despite the looming US presidential elections.
The election represents a significant market uncertainty, as indicated by a nearly 71% peak in forward implied volatility by November 8th.
Market Expectations
The market anticipates substantial price fluctuations around the US elections, which could be either positive or negative as institutional investors balance their positions against the risk.
The market volatility is predicted to decrease following two crucial events: the elections (5th Nov.) and the Fed rate decision (8th Nov.). The downward movement of the forward implied volatility after November 8th supports this.
Options Bullish Bets
Despite the election concerns, the BTC options market continues to exhibit a bullish outlook, as recently observed by crypto trading firm QCP Capital.
At the time of writing, data from Deribit echoed this sentiment, with call options (bullish bets on BTC future price rally) outnumbering put options (bearish bets) for contracts expiring by 29 November.
Options traders are pricing in a 20% chance of BTC reaching $80K by the end of November.
In response to this positioning, André Dragosch, Bitwise’s head of European research, labeled it as an expectation of a ‘bullish outcome.’
Donald Trump, who has arguably been the most pro-crypto candidate, has maintained a 20-point lead against Kamala Harris in polls and prediction site Polymarket.
If BTC does rise to $80K and surpasses the $70K psychological level, nearly $7 billion in short positions would be squeezed.
However, BTC has shown short-term weakening amid the ongoing US earnings season. At the moment, BTC’s value is $67K, approximately 10% away from its all-time high (ATH) of $73.7K.