Key Points
- Bitcoin dominance is nearing 57% of the total market share, indicating bullish market sentiment.
- Lack of new investor interest may obstruct Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] dominance in the cryptocurrency market has reached a new peak, nearing 57% of the total market share against other digital currencies. This coincides with Bitcoin’s renewed momentum as it surpasses the $64K mark, currently trading at $64,400.
This price range is significant due to its resemblance to the late August rally when bearish pressure pushed BTC below $55K in just two weeks. This level is now a critical battleground that could determine BTC’s next significant move.
Bitcoin Dominance and Market Sentiment
Bitcoin dominance essentially represents BTC’s share in the overall cryptocurrency market. As the first and largest cryptocurrency by market cap, BTC’s dominance is a key indicator of market sentiment. Currently, the outlook is optimistic, with a significant portion of stakeholders moving out of net loss positions.
However, for a breakout to occur, these investors must avoid offloading their positions. Historically, a surge in Bitcoin deposits to exchanges has coincided with daily price lows. If traders do not view the current price as a “dip,” the anticipated rise to $66K may falter.
Concerns Over Lack of New Investors
A concerning trend is the lack of new investors entering the market despite high Bitcoin dominance. This lack of fresh capital could prevent BTC from reaching its next price target. If this trend does not reverse in the next day or two, Bitcoin may face a correction that could pull it back to $62K.
The current $64K level has not yet flipped to support, indicating uncertainty among investors about entering the market at this price. Many may be waiting for a retracement to buy when BTC reaches a local low.
In its attempt to replicate the late July rally when BTC closed near $66K, Bitcoin dominance has faltered three times since then, primarily driven by speculative traders. For instance, during the late September cycle, when BTC almost reached its price target, excessive shorting led to a pullback as long positions were forced to sell their holdings.
Currently, a majority of future traders are betting on a rebound, as evidenced by the spike in the red zone. However, caution is advised, as spot market traders do not share the same bullish outlook for BTC as those in the derivatives market.
This divergence may be exploited by short sellers, who are likely to increase their positions, capitalizing on the lack of fresh capital entering the market. Therefore, alongside high Bitcoin dominance, converting the $64K level into support is crucial. This can occur if new buyers view the current price as an opportunity to buy the dip.
On the contrary, if they hesitate, a retracement to the $62K–$64K range may be necessary for a healthy shakeout before BTC can break above $66K.