Key Points
- Polymarket traders are placing bets on the identity of Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, ahead of an HBO documentary.
- The majority of bettors believe cryptographer Len Sassaman could be the Bitcoin founder.
Polymarket traders have initiated a betting market in anticipation of the upcoming HBO documentary, “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery.” The documentary promises to reveal the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the elusive creator of Bitcoin. The market, which opened on October 4, is set to conclude on October 8, the premiere date of the documentary. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared from public view in 2011, leading to numerous speculations about his true identity.
Top Contenders
As of now, the majority of Polymarket bettors are leaning towards Len Sassaman, a cryptographer, as Satoshi. Sassaman currently leads the betting board with 54% odds. His past academic works centered around cryptography, and he was a strong advocate for privacy and decentralization. The fact that Sassaman died by suicide in 2011, shortly after Satoshi stopped posting on Bitcoin’s forum BTCTalk, has fueled these speculations.
The second highest odds, at 38%, are for “Other/Multiple,” suggesting that Satoshi could be a group of people or an unknown individual. Other popular contenders include Hal Finney, an early Bitcoin contributor and the first recipient of a Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi, and Blockstream CEO Adam Back, one of the first individuals to receive an email from Satoshi.
Previous Claims
From 2016 to 2024, Australian computer scientist Craig Wright claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, following suggestions from Wired magazine and Gizmodo. Wright alleged that he authored the 2008 Bitcoin whitepaper under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto and even won a libel case against crypto blogger Peter McCormack. However, in March, Judge James Mellor ruled that the evidence overwhelmingly showed Wright was not Satoshi. This came after the Crypto Open Patent Alliance initiated a legal battle to prevent Wright from suing Bitcoin developers. The U.K. High Court officially ruled that Craig Wright was not Satoshi Nakamoto and that he is not the author of Bitcoin’s whitepaper.