Key Points
- Bitcoin’s price fell 3.61% in 24 hours, hitting critical support levels between $98,830 and $95,830.
- Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges reached 74,052 BTC in December, indicating a trend towards long-term holding.
Bitcoin, currently trading at $95,397, has seen a recent decrease in price and wallet returns. This represents a 24-hour price drop of 3.61% and a weekly decline of 1.95%.
Despite reaching a record high earlier this month, Bitcoin’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric is at -1.9%, its lowest since the October bull rally.
Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV)
According to Santiment, this negative MVRV implies that numerous traders purchased during a period of high euphoria and are now facing unrealized losses. The historical average MVRV for Bitcoin is 0%, which reflects its nature as a zero-sum market.
Negative MVRV levels could indicate buying opportunities, as positions at a loss can signify undervaluation. For traders looking to capitalize on these circumstances, Santiment suggests a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach.
Support Levels and Future Price Projections
Crypto analyst Ali emphasizes the significance of Bitcoin’s support range between $98,830 and $95,830. In this range, 1.09 million wallets collectively purchased over 1.16 million BTC. If Bitcoin breaks down below $96,000, it could trigger a drop to $90,000 or $85,000, according to Fibonacci retracement levels.
Ali also noted the ongoing trend of Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges. In December alone, 74,052 BTC were moved off exchanges, suggesting a shift towards long-term holding, as coins removed from exchanges are less likely to be sold.
Market Metrics and Trading Activity
Recent data from IntoTheBlock shows increased activity in high-value transactions of $100,000 or more. On December 18, there were 26,510 large transactions, slightly below the 7-day high of 29,140. Spikes in such transactions are typically observed during periods of volatility. The sustained volume of these transactions reflects continued interest from institutional or high-net-worth traders.
Address activity has shown a mixed trend. There are currently 1.66 million addresses, including 370,840 new ones and 894,920 active addresses. However, the past week saw a decline in new addresses by 7.12% and active addresses by 4.48%, indicating a potential slowdown in retail participation during the recent market correction.
Technical Indicators
Technical analysis of Bitcoin shows it is trading above the 9-day and 21-day moving averages, indicating an overall bullish trend since October. However, the recent MACD crossover shows the MACD line falling below the signal line, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
The current resistance at $99,644 has led to a slight pullback, suggesting the possibility of consolidation or further correction. Analysts recommend monitoring support at $95,000 to gauge whether the uptrend will continue or face further declines.