Solana has been navigating a corrective phase following its breakdown from a rising channel pattern visible on the hourly chart. After reaching highs near $147.44 in late March, price action turned bearish, with SOL/USD experiencing a significant pullback to find support at the $122.51 level.
Currently trading at $126.21, Solana appears to be attempting to form a base above the 0% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting that buyers may be stepping in after the recent decline.
Solana Key Levels to Watch
If the bulls manage to push prices above the immediate resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($132.03), the next targets would be the 50% level at $134.98, followed by the 61.8% retracement at $137.92. The latter also coincides with a previous support zone that may now serve as significant resistance.
On the downside, a failure to maintain the current support at $122.51 could see Solana revisit lower support levels, potentially testing the psychological $120 mark. A daily close below this level would signal that the bears remain in control and could push prices toward the next major support around $110.
The Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the previous swing low to the recent high indicate potential resistance zones at $132.03 (38.2%), $134.98 (50.0%), and $137.92 (61.8%).
SOLUSD Technical Analysis
The moving averages paint a bearish picture in the near term, with the 100 SMA (blue line) crossing below the 200 SMA (red line), confirming the downward momentum. This bearish crossover typically signals that sellers have gained control of the market. However, price is currently testing a horizontal support zone that has previously acted as resistance, suggesting a potential role reversal.
SOL/USD appears to be forming higher lows since the March 29 bottom, indicating diminishing selling pressure. If the current support at $122.51 holds, we could see Solana attempt to reclaim the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $132.03, which coincides with a previous support zone that may now act as resistance.
The MACD indicator is showing signs of convergence near the zero line, with the histogram bars shrinking, suggesting that bearish momentum may be losing steam. A crossover of the MACD line above the signal line would provide a bullish confirmation, potentially supporting a move toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $134.98.
Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator is moving upward from oversold conditions, indicating potential for continued upside in the short term. The oscillator has not yet reached overbought territory, suggesting there’s room for the current recovery to extend before hitting resistance.
Solana Longer-Term Price Outlook
From a broader perspective, Solana had been trading within a larger ascending channel since early 2024, and the recent breakdown represents a significant shift in market structure. For the longer-term uptrend to remain intact, SOL/USD needs to reclaim the 61.8% Fibonacci level and break back into the previous channel.
The price action currently resembles a potential falling wedge pattern, which is typically bullish if confirmed by a breakout to the upside. Traders should watch for increasing volume on any upward movements as confirmation of renewed buying interest.
From a fundamental standpoint, Solana continues to see growing adoption in various DeFi and NFT projects, which could provide underlying support for the token. However, the recent market correction across the broader cryptocurrency space, including Bitcoin’s pullback, has dampened immediate sentiment.
For now, cautious positioning is advised with close attention to the reaction at the key Fibonacci levels. A decisive move above the 50% retracement level would signal stronger recovery potential, while continued rejection at these resistance zones would suggest that the bearish trend may persist in the near term.
