Understanding Bitcoin’s Performance: Long-Term Optimism vs Short-Term Sell-Off Trends

Interpreting the Tale of Whales: Assessing the Impact of Recent, Large BTC Buyers on Market Trends

Understanding Bitcoin's Performance: Long-Term Optimism vs Short-Term Sell-Off Trends

Key Points

Bitcoin’s Downtrend and Selling Pressure

At the time of writing, Bitcoin [BTC] was experiencing a downtrend, having lost the $92,000-support level in the final week of February. The OBV technical indicators suggested that selling pressure was the dominant force, implying potential further losses.

The apparent demand for Bitcoin has been decreasing since December, as pointed out by analyst Darkfost on CryptoQuant. The apparent demand ratio fell below zero towards the end of February, coinciding with the loss of the $92k support, and it has remained negative since.

Short-term Bearishness and HODLer Confidence

Short-term holders (STHs), defined as whale holders with a holding period of under 155 days, experienced unrealized losses in the final week of February as the price maintained its downtrend. The STH whales’ unrealized losses peaked on 11 March, reaching a staggering $17.52 billion, indicating potential further selling to protect against greater losses.

However, the sum coin age distribution, which analyzes the age of Bitcoin’s unspent transaction output [UTXO], showed a different picture for medium to long-term holders. Since late January, the 1 month-18-month age bands have generally seen increased holding and accumulation behavior, indicating a positive sign.

While recent, large BTC buyers were deep underwater, and there was a lack of immediate buying pressure to absorb the supply, medium to long-term holders appeared to retain some confidence, based on the SCA distribution.

Despite this, until the short-term pressure eases, Bitcoin could potentially see another price drop below $80k.

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